Vladamir Putin is a bit of a guilty pleasure in Grumpyland. It might be the way he knots his ties, that certain gleam in his eyes or just his vulgar sense of humor.  But, whatever it is, I find him amusing if not admirable.

I am not, of course, blind to his authoritarian tendencies, nor do I approve of them.  But I am enough of a cynic to enjoy pure, uncut politics.  That is, politics as a totally amoral/immoral exercise in gaining and holding power.  When it comes to that sort of thing, Putin is the finest operator I’ve ever seen.

His little adventure in Georgia is no exception.

The articles I’ve read about it view this in one of two ways: First, Putin is an aggressor attempting to bring back a new Soviet Union.  Second, Western ambitions in Eastern Europe have made this inevitable.

I tend to favor the second notion.

That is, when I look at things from a geopolitical rather than an anarchist perspective.

In the anarchist view, power always acts against people.  While that is certainly true, it leads one to conclude that America and Russia are acting in consort to drive up oil prices, sell weapons and have a new cold war to keep the old military industrial complex working.  And that’s just crazy talk.

I’m reminded of dear Yakov Smirnoff and joke he might have made if he was still around:  In Russia, the government owns the oil.  In America, the oil owns the government.

So I’m going to put aside the anarchist point of view — while keeping it in back of mind — as I point out something that should be glaringly obvious to anyone who has read anything about intelligence.

The yanks knew or should have known this was coming.

Putin had carefully baited a trap for Georgia in South Ossetia.  When they took the bait and attacked he was ready to respond on two fronts.  It’s just chess.  Smart chess.  His army was ready.

Apparently, Georgia was unaware of this.

If aware, they must have thought they could count on American assistance.

This means that the Americans, who must have known where the Russian army was sitting, and even a cursory analysis would reveal why it was sitting there, either did not share this information or simply did not have it.  I think they did not have it.  Or, perhaps they did and did not know they had it.

I believe that American foreign intelligence has been completely infiltrated and undermined by the Russians.  The Russians have managed to distort and break down all communication between the USA and its would be client-states and/or infested the CIA’s analytical abilities so deeply that the yanks don’t even know where the Russian army is or what it is doing there.  Perhaps the Georgians somehow got the impression that America would rush in and help them.  Somehow.

It’s not surprising when you consider that Bush has fired a lot of competent agents –even outing one in the field– and replaced them with political loyalists.  While the CIA may trade in lies and help governments to do the same, they need to know the truth to do this accurately.  Just ask my tailor.  One needs the correct measurements before he can make the correct suit.  Without those measurements, your lies are bad ones.

And Bush destroyed intellegence in the name of plausible deniability.  He doesn’t even want to hear, know or have anything to do with the truth these days.  All the people who might have told it to him are gone.

The reason I don’t believe — in the geopolitical analysis — that Bush wanted this war is because the Americans cannot win it.  Putin is in a win-win situation here.  He has undermined NATO.

As Stratfor — a non-partisan intelligence service– says; the new balance of power has not changed because of this war, it has just been expressed.

The louder the Americans criticize Russia, the more they play into Russia’s hands.  Every noisy condemnation without action [make no mistake, the yanks cannot take action] proves America is just empty talk.  That the yanks are just words. I have nothing against words.  They help us spread ideas, enjoy each others company and get each other into bed.  But bullets turn all that off.

Putin has presented Eastern Europe with an interesting choice:  American words or Russian bullets.

And if America goes quiet, Putin still makes his point.  Joining NATO or talking about joining NATO will not protect you.  Like I said, win-win.

So how does the West get out of this mess?

Well, as usual, it’s too late.  We’re in it.

But,if my goals were, like NATO’s, to hedge in Russia, here’s what I would have done: I would have hanged the Georgians out to dry.  More than that, I would have made their leader out to be a crackpot; a dangerous dictator who likely supports terrorism and hates human rights.   He was committing a genocide.

I would have bought the Russian story hook, line and sinker.

I would have congratulated our good friend Putin on his actions.

Then I would have offered him peacekeepers and UN/NATO support. I would have shoved these right down his throat.  How could he refuse such a gift?  We’re helping.  Shit, give the man a parade.

We would have had what he is trying to avoid: a bunch of Western soldiers sitting on his border.  You know, helping. You keep your friends close and your enemies closer.  At least that’s what my Nan always told me.

Instead we’re likening him to Hitler yet are unable to do anything.  He’s Hitler and we can’t do anything?  How does that make us look?  A bit weak, perhaps?  A bit ridiculous, maybe?

Putin has made his point about Western ambition in Eastern Europe.  Let’s hope that he doesn’t feel he needs to prove it.  If he does feel that way, well, I wouldn’t want to be Ukrainian right now.

And I don’t see what hope is going to get us.  Unfortunately, it seems to be all we have.