Winston Churchill said that observing Kremlin Politics was “like watching two dogs fighting under a carpet.” Something fucked up is happening but you sure can’t see what.
Like a lot of people right now, I’m trying to figure out all the recent poisonings. Is it Putin? Is is Boris Berezovsky? Rogues within the FSB? Someone or something else entirely? Different people responsible for different killings?
Who can you believe? Well, you might as well believe The Grumpy Owl. I stand about as much a chance as getting under that carpet as anyone. That is, no chance at all.
Russia has an election in 2008. According to the constitution, Putin isn’t allowed to run. In late October he said he wasn’t seeking a third term, which he could easily win. But he did say that he wanted to retain political power.
The question everyone asked was “How?” The common answer was that he would appoint a successor that he could control. But here’s the rub, Yeltsin thought the same thing about Pooty-Poot. It didn’t work. Putin knows this. So, even though he said that he wasn’t going to change the constitution, it seems to be the only way that he could hold onto power.
If only he had a good reason . . .
But this doesn’t make him guilty. Sure, he might have a history of creating a crisis to propel him to power and maybe he’s doing that now. But it’s just as likely that his enemies are paranoid about him running again and are trying to discredit him. It’s never too early to start campaigning. And make no mistake, as popular as he is, Putin has many enemies. Big scary enemies. People who should give you nightmares.
My opinion is that Putin is behind this. In late October my gut said that Putin had no intention of stepping aside and that we were about to see him solidify his power. In other words, there was going to be a round of killings. The shooting of journalist Anna Politkovskaya looked like it was just the start. It had that scent to it.
At the PEN Gala I was asked to sign a petition asking Vladimir Putin to investigate that killing. I actually laughed and asked them if they thought that Hitler should have investigated the disappearance of German Jews. Plus, considering that many of the signatories were powerful people, I was not going to put my name and address on that damn thing. Putin might actually see it. Fuck that action. Besides, I think Putin is better than most of the options. Yeah, he kills people. He’s the leader of Russia. That’s what they do. And they do it regardless of what science fiction writing bartenders from Toronto might think.
So here’s Grumpy’s opinion in a nutshell: The important question isn’t “Who is doing this?” The important question is “Who is going to benefit from it? ” To find that out, we just have to wait until 2008. But my money is on Putin. He’s a clever motherfucker.
